By Annunthra Rangan
India has been watching Operation Epic Fury from an uncomfortable chair—close enough to feel the heat, far enough to claim it wasn’t in the room. New Delhi’s initial response was a masterclass in studied ambiguity. The Ministry of External Affairs called for restraint and a ceasefire. Prime Minister Narendra Modi condemned attacks on national sovereignty without naming Iran directly. At the same time, India quietly upgraded its relationship with Israel to a “Special Strategic Partnership” in February, even as it maintained diplomatic channels with Tehran.
For decades, India has perfected this kind of diplomatic balancing act. Strategic autonomy—avoiding rigid alignment while maintaining ties across rival camps—has been a cornerstone of its foreign policy.
But this war is making neutrality increasingly expensive.
The economic risks are immediate. India imports roughly 85 percent of its crude oil, and nearly two-thirds of that supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime artery connecting the Persian Gulf to global markets. When Iran effectively disrupted shipping through the Strait following the opening US-Israeli strikes, the consequences were swift.
India’s LPG imports from West Asia reportedly fell from around 90 percent of supply to roughly 55 percent almost overnight. Global oil prices surged. Inflation—already hovering around 5.5 percent in early 2026—now faces renewed upward pressure.
Diplomacy has followed quickly behind economics. According to officials familiar with the conversations, Prime Minister Modi has spoken with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian twice since the conflict began, urging Tehran to ease restrictions around Hormuz.
The irony is difficult to miss. A government that had just elevated strategic ties with Israel now finds itself urging restraint from the country Israel is bombing.
A STRATEGIC INVESTMENT IN LIMBO
Another casualty of the crisis is India’s long-term strategic investment in Iran: the Chabahar port project.
New Delhi has already committed roughly $500 million to develop the Shahid Beheshti Terminal on Iran’s southeastern coast. Chabahar has long been central to India’s regional strategy. It provides India direct access to Afghanistan and Central Asia while bypassing Pakistan, and it serves as a crucial node in the International North-South Transport Corridor connecting India with Russia and Eurasia.
It also functions as India’s strategic counterweight to China’s Gwadar port in neighbouring Pakistan.
But the project has always depended on delicate diplomacy. Chabahar survived largely because Washington granted periodic sanctions waivers allowing India to continue operating the port despite US restrictions on Iran. That waiver expires on April 26.
With tensions escalating and the conflict still unfolding, operations at Chabahar have effectively stalled. The planned Chabahar-Zahedan railway, a critical link in the INSTC corridor, now faces an indefinite delay.
For now, India’s westward gateway stands suspended between geopolitics and uncertainty.
A RARE STRATEGIC OPENING
Yet, the post-conflict landscape may offer India something rare in international politics: a genuine strategic opening.
One project in particular has gained renewed urgency. The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC)—announced during India’s G20 summit in September 2023—was initially viewed as an ambitious, but distant initiative. The war in Gaza slowed its momentum further.
Operation Epic Fury has suddenly made the Corridor look far more necessary.
IMEC is designed to connect India to Europe through the Middle East via ports, rail networks, energy pipelines, and digital infrastructure. Crucially, the corridor bypasses both the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal—two chokepoints that recent crises have exposed as major vulnerabilities in global trade.
The conflict has demonstrated with brutal clarity why alternative routes matter.
—The writer is a Senior Research Officer at Chennai Centre for China Studies. Her research interests constitute China-WANA (West Asia and North Africa) relations and human rights
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