By Annunthra Rangan
India’s foreign policy has entered a testing phase amid the turbulence of global politics. The Donald Trump-led United States, once viewed as a dependable strategic partner, has injected unpredictability through punitive tariffs and sharp diplomatic barbs. While Trump insists on a “special relationship,” Washington’s economic nationalism tells another story. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s measured responses reflect both restraint and a recognition that the old certainties of global order are fading.
FRACTURED US-INDIA TIES
The once buoyant US-India partnership—rooted in defense cooperation, Quad coordination and economic convergence—has slowed under Trump’s tariff offensive. Since August, Washington has slapped 50 percent duties on Indian exports, from textiles and jewellery to footwear and seafood, citing India’s Russian oil imports.
New Delhi countered with GST cuts and relief packages to offset export losses, but growth forecasts still dipped by 0.5-0.6 percent. Even so, India’s GDP remains resilient, projected at 6.3-6.8 percent for FY 2025-26. Trump has signalled openness to negotiate, praising India’s zero-tariff offer on US goods. Yet analysts warn his conciliatory tone may mask deeper manoeuvring, including legal filings linking Indian oil imports to tariff justification.
GEOPOLITICAL CROSSCURRENTS
Amid this friction, Modi’s presence alongside Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin, China, underscored India’s tactical balancing. China’s overtures, however, remain cautious—shadowed by border tensions, Belt and Road differences, and Beijing’s Pakistan ties. Russia, though still a major defense partner, is increasingly tethered to China, limiting its independence. Both offer rhetoric, but not reliable alignment.
Europe remains economically attractive and sees India as a democratic counterbalance in the Indo-Pacific. Yet its security clout is constrained by transatlantic dependence and internal divisions, making it an unreliable hard-power ally.
THE CASE FOR MULTI-ALIGNMENT
The volatility of great power politics highlights the perils of overdependence. For India, the lesson is clear: cultivate resilience through strategic multi-alignment. This means engaging the US, Russia, Europe, ASEAN, and Quad partners simultaneously, but without tying itself too closely to any one camp.
A modular, issue-based approach allows New Delhi to work with Europe on climate, with Southeast Asia on supply chains, and with Quad partners on cybersecurity—extracting value without binding commitments.
REGIONAL ANCHOR, GLOBAL PLAYER
Equally vital is India’s leadership closer to home. By deepening influence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean through initiatives like SAGAR and regional connectivity, India strengthens its immediate sphere, reducing dependence on distant powers. Strategic autonomy today is not passive non-alignment, but active engagement—maximizing options in a world of shifting alliances.
Ultimately, foreign policy resilience begins at home. Expanding manufacturing, diversifying exports, and boosting indigenous technology will shield India from external shocks. A strong domestic base ensures India’s voice is not just heard, but respected.
OPPORTUNITY IN UNCERTAINTY
The US tariff confrontation and mixed signals from China, Russia and Europe underline a hard truth: in today’s multipolar world, trust is conditional, alignments temporary, and partnerships transactional. India must therefore prepare to thrive amid uncertainty—treating volatility not as constraint, but as opportunity.
By investing in foresight, agility, and self-reliance, India can shape its destiny not as a follower of shifting blocs, but as a confident, adaptive power charting its own course in a fractured world order.
—The writer is a Senior Research Officer at Chennai Centre for China Studies. Her research interests constitute China-WANA (West Asia and North Africa) relations and human rights
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